ASB Bank Limited

Received-SPF: pass (Last token {ip4:129.41.222.45} (res=PASS)) client-ip=129.41.222.45; envelope-from=; x-ip-name=mail7212.mail.asb.co.nz; Received: from mail7212.mail.asb.co.nz (mail7212.mail.asb.co.nz [129.41.222.45]) by netwin.co.nz (SurgeMail 7.6k) with ESMTP (TLS) id 12-1391920 for ; Sun, 28 Nov 2021 23:18:36 +0000 Return-Path: DKIM-Signature: v=1; a=rsa-sha256; c=relaxed/relaxed; s=spop1024; d=mail.asb.co.nz; h=Date:From:Reply-To:To:Message-ID:Subject:MIME-Version:Content-Type: X-CSA-Complaints:List-Unsubscribe-Post:List-Unsubscribe; i=asb@mail.asb.co.nz; bh=Z5gBIEDmOl9HhLqfKZRsF+PIn0NX2k+0efrT5in1QM4=; b=bCQus7stsOmy/T09I0zOogCbJxjbX0DIZGdnjgthhwHvnGGC0d55IETEsnac+V9pMkV6PyR7BXQg x98Bn6IQS60Hel8yIvP2FyZb+05lYw29vIh6uoRFQmYB4jQZxe2kOQMOOa/3G4zLkngAxV8YDiHg RrLjhvW/tAnJGA/H8sw= Received: by mail7212.mail.asb.co.nz id hkg74i2r7ao8 for ; Sun, 28 Nov 2021 23:03:25 +0000 (envelope-from ) Date: Sun, 28 Nov 2021 23:03:25 +0000 (UTC) From: ASB Bank Ltd Reply-To: reportscentre@asb.co.nz To: stephenp@netwin.co.nz Message-ID: <1197775180.774152051638140605144.JavaMail.app@bg72-ca-ase1.prod.awspr> Subject: Economic Weekly: Omicron reminds us the pandemic is not over yet MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="----=_Part_1494156_2119151143.1638140602581" x-mid: 5251336 X-CSA-Complaints: csa-complaints@eco.de x-rpcampaign: sp5251336 x-job: 5251336 x-orgId: 10406 List-Unsubscribe-Post: List-Unsubscribe=One-Click List-Unsubscribe: , X-Originating-IP: 129.41.222.45 X-Country: code=SG country="Singapore" ip=129.41.222.45 X-Qnum: 12 X-ORBS-Accept: dnswl_none ------=_Part_1494156_2119151143.1638140602581 Content-Type: text/html; charset="utf-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable =09ASB Bank Limited =09 =09 =09 =09 =09 =09 =09 =09 =09 =09 =09=09 =09=09=09 =09=09=09=09=09 =09=09=09=09 =09=09=09

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ASB Bank Ltd ‌ ‌= ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌&nb= sp;‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ = ;‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ &z= wnj; ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ &zwnj= ; ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌&= nbsp;‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌&nbs= p;‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ = ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ &zw= nj; ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ &zwnj= ; ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌&n= bsp;‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ &nbs= p;‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ &= zwnj; ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ &zwn= j; ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌= ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌&nb= sp;‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ = ;‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ &z= wnj; ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌

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Having trouble viewing this email? View it in your brows= er.

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3D"ASB"

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Economic Weekly

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Omicron reminds us the pandemic is not over yet

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Monday, 29 November 2021

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3D""

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Hi Stephen

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Over the weekend= the World Health Organisation named Omicron a COVID-19 variant of concern,= while governments around the world scrambled to restrict international tra= vel from high-risk countries. It remains too soon to know the degree of thr= eat the new variant will pose to the management of the pandemic, but it is = a timely reminder that the pandemic is far from over and many uncertainties= and risks remain. Global financial markets reacted negatively to the= news. The new variant comes as many European nations are struggling = with rising COVID case numbers heading into the Northern Hemisphere winter = and are looking to introduce new restrictions, particularly aimed at limiti= ng movement and interactions of the unvaccinated.
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09
=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09Meanwhile, the speed with which travel = restrictions and border closures were put in place over the weekend is also= a timely reminder that international travel in 2022 won’t be in anyw= ay ‘normal’. With NZ set to allow home isolation for full= y-vaccinated citizens and residents from early next year, many are likely t= o be eying up an international trip. However, the lessons from Omicro= n (and the bursting of the TransTasman Bubble) are that international borde= rs and quarantine requirements can be altered with little to no notice.&nbs= p; People looking to travel overseas need to be prepared with a contingency= plan and ready to fly home at a moment’s notice (or risk becoming st= uck for a prolonged and unknown period as is the case for those who remaine= d in Australia). This also highlights the challenges and risks of ope= ning up for international tourism over 2022.
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=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09The development of the Omicron variant = also reinforces the RBNZ’s decision to lift the OCR in “conside= red steps”, opting for a 25 basis point lift in the OCR last week, ra= ther than a 50 basis point lift. The RBNZ’s message to financia= l markets was that, yes – interest rates do need to go up, but how hi= gh remains uncertain so don’t get too far ahead of yourselves. = Indeed, a new vaccine resistant COVID-19 variant really would materially ha= mper the recovery for the NZ and global economy next year. On domestic cons= iderations, the RBNZ is wary of how much mortgage rates have already lifted= , and – as strong as the economy has been over 2021 – is mindfu= l of the number of headwinds facing households over 2022. Higher inte= rest rates and the rising cost of living outstripping wage increases could = have quite the cooling effect on spending. This could be potentially = compounded by wealthier NZ households redirecting money away from domestic = tourism and retail spending to international travel instead. Furtherm= ore, credit conditions are tightening beyond just the lift in mortgage rate= s – tighter Loan to Value Ratio restrictions are just kicking in, alo= ng with some banks beginning to impose debt-to-income lending limits. =
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=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09On some positive news (for Aucklanders = at least) Freedom Day is close approaching for the vaccinated, and no doubt= many NZers will be tuned in at 4pm to see what regions will be Red and wha= t regions will be Orange under the new traffic light system. Like it = or loathe it, the traffic light system is a positive step forward for the N= Z economy, and with highly-transmissible COVID variants it looks like syste= ms which restrict the movements of the unvaccinated are about to become the= international norm. jane.turner@asb.co.nz
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=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09=09Need help or information? Find AS= B and Government support information here.

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Repo= rt prepared by

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Jane Turner

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Senior Economist

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jane.turner@asb.co.nz

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View more economic = research from ASB

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3D""

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Security

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ASB will never ask you by email for your secure banking informati= on (account or credit card details, password, PIN number or Netcode details= ) or ask you to log in to your account from an email. ASB will always ask y= ou to log in through our website and you should do so by typing asb.co.nz directly into y= our browser address bar. If you are concerned about an email's authenti= city, please contact us directly on 0800 327 863 or forward the email to phishing@asb.co.nz

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Security &= nbsp; Privacy Terms and= Conditions Manage preferences= Unsubscribe

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Importan= t Disclaimer - This document is published solely for informational purposes= .. It has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial= situation, or needs. Before acting on the information in this document, yo= u should consider the appropriateness and suitability of the information, h= aving regard to your objectives, financial situation and needs, and, if nec= essary seek appropriate professional or financial advice.

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We belie= ve that the information in this document is correct and any opinions, concl= usions or recommendations are reasonably held or made, based on the informa= tion available at the time of its compilation, but no representation or war= ranty, either expressed or implied, is made or provided as to accuracy, rel= iability or completeness of any statement made in this document. Any opinio= ns, conclusions or recommendations set forth in this document are subject t= o change without notice and may differ or be contrary to the opinions, conc= lusions or recommendations expressed elsewhere by ASB or Commonwealth Bank.= We are under no obligation to, and do not, update or keep current the info= rmation contained in this document. No person involved in the preparation o= f this document accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of= the use of all or any part of this document.

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Any valuations, p= rojections and forecasts contained in this document are based on a number o= f assumptions and estimates and are subject to contingencies and uncertaint= ies. Different assumptions and estimates could result in materially differe= nt results. No representation or warranty is made that any of these valuati= ons, projections or forecasts, or any of the underlying assumptions or esti= mates, will be met. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future = performance.

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3D"YouTube"

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=E2=93=92 ASB Bank Limited. 2021

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= &nbs= p;

3D""

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